In two years when things get caught up, maybe...

 

Caught up? I can't speak for anywhere else but in my town, shops are bursting with inventory. Over the Edge in Hurricane posted their FB couple weeks back they "have more inventory than they've EVER had". On top of that, they've been selling every bike for full retail for the last two years and all those new riders = record profits in the repair department. The two main shops here are backed up 2-3 weeks for service.

All that being said, I don't expect to see any drastic sales as at least here, they are still selling bikes like hotcakes. Everybody wants to get outdoors.

 

Nothing wrong with a daydream, I suppose.

 

Could be sooner than you think, but not the way you want. Lots of economic indicators are going the wrong way fast so there's a good chance of a glut followed by liquidations, then bankruptcies, then back to shortages & high prices. Except this time the shortages stick.

 

This is exactly what's going to happen.

When I was living in Ithaca during at the start of the pandemic, two bike shops closed their doors. With no stock to sell, there was no way to make ends meet and afford rent.

Sadly, I think several shops will suffer the same fate.

 

I see sales on clothing and 2022 Rockshox forks but I am on week 6 waiting for a bike I placed a $500 deposit on. Supposedly only 2-3 more weeks till it shows but who knows?

 

Six weeks?
I ordered a bike in November. It's not due until December this year.

 

Probably online stores that were trying to create artificial shortages will have to dump excess stock, but our shop still can't get most popular tires, chains and cassettes so we don't have anything to discount.

 

lol

 

It really needs to and be rebuilt from the ground up.

 

Prob not in the bike industry. I recall reading that most in the bike industry were loathe to ramp up production when the increase in demand hit during the height of the pandemic. Because they knew it was only going to be temporary and they didn't want to get stuck with a ton of excess inventory they'd have to blow out later.

 

Think of it as a roller coaster ride. The climb to the top is slow, the fall is FAST.

As the tide goes out, you get to see who was swimming naked.

 

Serious? Is it only Norcal that the bike shops have an over abundance of bikes and they are all on sale? My friend just picked up a Trek super caliber for 4 something when the original price is 5 something. And all bikes were on sale at that chain store. Plus Sportsbasment has all Cannondales on sale. Something like 20% off.

 

People out there are willing to pay the increased prices for bikes and bike parts. Why would prices go back down?

 

Prices charged by component and frame makers are not going down. However, two factors may reduce prices. The premium ocean freight charges have gone away and ocean rates are returning to normal.
More importantly; US interest rates are up. This makes the USD stronger; thus reducing prices on almost all bicycle stuff.

I am working like crazy to drive my bicycle prices down. I hate high prices on bikes !

I think $2000 should be enough to buy a top level road, gravel, or FS mountain bike. For most people $2000 is lot of money!

 

I think $2000 should be enough to buy a top level road, gravel, or FS mountain bike. For most people $2000 is lot of money!

Man I wish, $2,000 will barely buy a top quality wheel set.

 

The industry as a whole is at least a year away from inventory returning to normal.
Bikes are starting to become available again, but availability will be hit or miss for the rest of the year. As bikes come into stock, people who put off buying over the last couple years will buy up stock. Only after bikes are readily available will components become widely available again. Parts will go to build up full bikes first, once that demand is satisfied the parts will become available at retail, like normal.
Maybe 2023 retail will be back to normal, late to end of 2023 we might start seeing overstock sales/ discounts again.

This is the cycle that other industries have followed when demand peaks like it did for bikes over the last couple years.

 

The bike industry is no exception to the general market psychology that is causing this phenomenon. It's fairly straightforward - there was a shortage of everything due to covid shutting down factories and buggering shipping. So retailers ordered whatever they could order because demand was surging. Now that stuff is starting to be delivered, demand is dropping off because customers already bought all the stuff they could buy, but all those supply orders are still being delivered to retailers. Thus, oversupply. It's what happened to Target and Wal-mart and it's going to happen to every business that is supplied by international trade and manufacturing. And honestly, it's better than the alternative - having to sell stuff at a discount is much better than having no stuff to sell.

As for demand, I don't think many people put off buying a bike. If anything, tons of people bought bikes that they probably rode once or twice during covid and then never touched again. Those bikes are going to end up in the used market, increasing supply. It's already happening. I listed a bike this week that during covid would have been snapped up for a stupid asking price. Now, I am getting offers, but far fewer than during covid and for well below the asking price.

 

New people didn't put off buying, but plenty of people delayed new bikes and kept riding what they already had when inventory was scarce. Not all, but some.
Those people are likely to buy as inventory becomes available.
Used bikes being widely available will be a good thing, and likely happen alongside new bikes being more readily available.

 

As long as we in the US have tariffs, MAP and manufacturers prevent shipping from outside the US.... I don't see much price drop for us. Maybe more availability here and there, maybe some discount.

IMHO the Golden age of bike upgraditis ended 3 years ago when we still could buy from inexpensive European stores, shipping was cheap and everything was available. I don't see that coming back.

On the "Nerd Alert" Podcast they said Russia and Ukraine were large bike markets and their demand now is very low to nil and that could help with inventory on a global scale (even if I would prefer a nicer reason than war for parts being available). I don't know if that was just armchair quarterbacking on their part, or actual fact.

 

IMHO the Golden age of bike upgraditis ended 3 years ago when we still could buy from inexpensive European stores, shipping was cheap and everything was available. I don't see that coming back.

This is still there. However at the moment the discounts are minimal and stock is spotty. Shipping is up a bit too, thanks to fuel costs I think.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens. Per my thread in the families and kids forum, I'm starting to think about my 11 year old's next bike and even though he doesn't need it this year should I buy now in case the prices go up even further, or have they peaked for the foreseeable future?

 

Prices will come down a fair bit within the next year or 2. However it is a bit like waiting for lumber to drop. Or computers. How long can you wait?

 

They will transition to a purchase order system (if they haven't unofficially done that already). People are used to waiting for their bikes now, so why change it? Probably have a few bikes to demo in store then you order and wait.

I guess the danger is if it is not the industry standard they will order it from someone who has it in stock. But who has bike you really want on the floor right now?

 

@bikesdirect I appreciate the insight from someone who is both close to the industry, and not from a company who says they've reinvented the bike for the 100th time and trying to sell ketchup popsicles to an eskimo. Sounds like reasonably good news all around.

You get a lot of flack around here but I appreciate the hell out of what bikesdirect does. If you can read a geo chart and don't mind replacing a few throw-aways, it works great. I put massive mileage on a Ti LeChampion before deciding road riding was going to get me killed. $1700 for an Ultegra Ti bike with serviceable parts is insane (granted, 7 years ago now). Similarly my $3k X01 Ti Fantom hardtail is still being thrashed and going strong. I'd love to see you bring back the ORA-built Ti frames. Great stuff.

 

@bikesdirect I appreciate the insight from someone who is both close to the industry, and not from a company who says they've reinvented the bike for the 100th time and trying to sell ketchup popsicles to an eskimo. Sounds like reasonably good news all around.

You get a lot of flack around here but I appreciate the hell out of what bikesdirect does. If you can read a geo chart and don't mind replacing a few throw-aways, it works great. I put massive mileage on a Ti LeChampion before deciding road riding was going to get me killed. $1700 for an Ultegra Ti bike with serviceable parts is insane (granted, 7 years ago now). Similarly my $3k X01 Ti Fantom hardtail is still being thrashed and going strong. I'd love to see you bring back the ORA-built Ti frames. Great stuff.

Thank you

i have Ti bikes on order in several designs
road, gravel, mountain
Customers seem to love the Moto Ti bikes, when I can get them
ORA builds great frames , as good as you can get IMHO
but they are a small shop with long leadtimes

most customers do not appreciate that a nice Ti frame costs 3.5 times as much as CF or 853
but for many - it is worth it

 

Inventory is catching up fast. Demand seems to be falling even faster.

 

Plus
look at this
Steel and aluminum seem to be going down
while USD is going up

 

Is that bulk steel or rebar?

 

Bulk I’m sure
i just pulled it off a site that tracks commodity prices

point is
aluminum
steel
rubber
etc
Likely to drop in price as we and the rest of the world enter a recession

dollar likely to get stronger
So lower bike, tv, furniture, etc prices are likely in the next year - that’s my guess

 

I can only speak for my local area near Seattle but many bike shops here have large inventories of bikes. I spoke to a couple of the shop owners recently and both said people aren’t buying bikes anymore and their sales have cratered. Some of them are struggling to stay afloat right now. I expect major discounts on bikes come fall.

 

Other than a couple really cheap bikes and some kids bikes, I sold one bike last month and two in the month before. Go visit your favorite LBS and say farewell, they probably won't be around much longer. Considering a lot of small shops operated at a loss last year, this year is going to pick off the remaining stragglers.

 

Not surprised.

Bike Shortage Time Frame

Any insiders in the industry on this forum know how long this bike shortage is going to last? So hard to buy a bike here in Australia at the moment. Bike shops everywhere have almost no stock.

www.mtbr.com

 

lots of people seem to get into biking and camping during pandemic. Sales of Campers and Bikes went through the roof. Many of those will stop.

 

Long waits for repairs are still a thing. One LBS here has massive inventory--was lucky to be carrying lines where bikes were available while other shops (ie. carrying Specialized) sat nearly empty. I hope that shop doesn't get squeezed, but then they were able to sell bikes within a huge radius for the last two years and could probably weather a storm. And I think they're still moving a lot of bikes and parts.

 

Here is what just happened

government is reporting increase in CPI
8.6%

what this means
federal reserve will increase rates quicker
USD will go up against NT $ and Yen
cost to importers in USA of sram, fox, shimano, Maxxis, DT Swiss, etc etc will go down
in time, this can lower prices in USA

 

Here is what just happened

government is reporting increase in CPI
8.6%

what this means
federal reserve will increase rates quicker
USD will go up against NT $ and Yen
cost to importers in USA of sram, fox, shimano, Maxxis, DT Swiss, etc etc will go down
in time, this can lower prices in USA

It didn't "just happen", it's been a long long time coming. But the nature of things is people won't react, save money, hold off buying a house, till the CPI hits them smack in the forehead.

 

There was a glut of $300ish kineses frames a while back. Non disc, otherwise I would have snatched one. I had a kinesis D rigid mountain fork in the 90's. I liked it a lot. it is still in use on a 1996 GT pantera with original DT hubs. I need to recliam that bike actually, it has caramba cranks, 217 rims, control tech brakes, blackspire rings, XT 8s. weighed 19lbs. Hmmm.

emails mike