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Buy the bike he's comfortable on and pay for real structured training if he's aiming for the podium. Wish I learned that sooner with my son. We fumbled our way through it all, still he finished his senior season as a top 10 varsity rider. My Daughter has a Wilder (Blur) TR and a paid custom training plan to follow... the progress she has made is amazing.
 
I believe that @LMN has had experience trying to set up and/or manage a privateer XC team at a fairly high level. I don't quite recall the final number, but at around $4k, we both agreed that there are rapid diminishing returns. At around this figure or slightly above, there is nothing about the bikes that would hold anyone back short competing at the top tier national level. Granted, we were discussion xc race bikes and not all around bikes. In this context, $5k for a good all-around trail bike leaning towards xc racing and not the bike park is a reasonable number. At least reasonable enough that any rider should not be wanting more.
 
I'd buy my girls good used bikes if they were into NICA, but there would be a practical limit. I'd be ok at 1000, maybe maybe 1500 bucks if they were just being twats and insisted on having a full suspension. If you're my kid and want a 5000 dollar bike in high school, looks like you need a job to pay for one. At some point kids need to see mom and dad don't bankroll their dreams. We'll provide for you, but bling? That's on you.
how many NICA races have you been to? In my observation the majority of kids are Trek Marlins. The $5000 bikes are the exception
 
Discussion starter · #24 ·
how many NICA races have you been to? In my observation the majority of kids are Trek Marlins. The $5000 bikes are the exception
Obviously you haven't been to a NICA race in Utah. I would say the mean at the high school level is $4k. I've coached for five season and has attended a couple dozen NICA races in that time.
 
The team I coached was full of s-works epics. The team's primary shop sponsor being a specialized shop was part of it, the other being the head coach was a specialized kool-aid drinker. The team's shop supports all bikes, not just what they sell. As do the other shops in the area.
The amount of money in bikes in the pit zone of just our team at the races was astonishing. And a bit embarrassing to be real. On a team of 150-200, we would have 100-150 at races (depending on what year, the team just keeps growing). At least half those bikes were north of $5k. Many well north of it.
Not that I can really say much as my son's race bike was in that range.

But it's why I always told the parents what I did. We had state champs on our team, we had many top tens on our team. And not one of any of them was due strictly to the bike.
 
how many NICA races have you been to? In my observation the majority of kids are Trek Marlins. The $5000 bikes are the exception
I haven't been to any. I see updates on facebook from the local groups though. There are people that put plenty of money into it from what I gather from the posts, on group rides, and random encounters on the trail. And again, not to be picking on the OP, but it sounds like to be average where he is, a 5k bike is the cost of admission.

It certainly brings up the question of what people consider "good enough". If my girls were into it, I'd be ok with getting them good used stuff in the budgets I stated above, which is above Marlin level for sure. If they weren't that into it, I'd still feel better about getting them a used bike above a Marlin level because you can get a lot more used bike for not much more than a new Marlin.
 
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Obviously you haven't been to a NICA race in Utah. I would say the mean at the high school level is $4k. I've coached for five season and has attended a couple dozen NICA races in that time.
Obviously you haven't been to a NICA race in Utah. I would say the mean at the high school level is $4k. I've coached for five season and has attended a couple dozen NICA races in that time.
Agreed, at least in the Utah league the majority of riders have genuinely nice equipment, especially the more experienced categories.
 
I have quite a bit of experience building racing bikes on a budget. Don't get suckered by fancy stuff. Things like carbon wheels, wireless shifting, and ultra-light weight have minimal/no performance advantage.

In 2018 I was running a team with the best Junior racer in North Amercia . His bike was all about business, full retail on the bike would have been about 5K USD at the most. And on that bike he was going to toe to toe with riders who went on to win U23 world cups or move onto World Tour road teams. Unfortunely, this junior was super smart and focused on an honors Physics/Engineering degree instead of continuing racing.

The key thing for a good race bike is servicability and replaceability. Racing is super hard on stuff and things will break. You are better of to have two XT derailleurs than one XTR, same with wheels. Get two sets of Aluminum wheels instead of one-set of Carbon.

I have a long term relationship with Orbea so my advice on "what bike to buy" would have obvious bias. But honestly the three bikes you have listed are all good bikes that tend to be pretty darn reliability. But some are better buys than the others.
 
Discussion starter · #31 ·
I have quite a bit of experience building racing bikes on a budget. Don't get suckered by fancy stuff. Things like carbon wheels, wireless shifting, and ultra-light weight have minimal/no performance advantage.

In 2018 I was running a team with the best Junior racer in North Amercia . His bike was all about business, full retail on the bike would have been about 5K USD at the most. And on that bike he was going to toe to toe with riders who went on to win U23 world cups or move onto World Tour road teams. Unfortunely, this junior was super smart and focused on an honors Physics/Engineering degree instead of continuing racing.

The key thing for a good race bike is servicability and replaceability. Racing is super hard on stuff and things will break. You are better of to have two XT derailleurs than one XTR, same with wheels. Get two sets of Aluminum wheels instead of one-set of Carbon.

I have a long term relationship with Orbea so my advice on "what bike to buy" would have obvious bias. But honestly the three bikes you have listed are all good bikes that tend to be pretty darn reliability. But some are better buys than the others.
Thank you for your honest response, well recieved. Imconcur, my goal is to stop right at the point of diminishing returns and no chase farther. Thus why I'm at this spot. I think I've settled on a awesome deal I've worked out with a connection of mine, I'm taking an Ibis Exie deore build, with a swap to factory fork and shock at no charge and upgrading the drivetrain to XT. I'll throw on a a wolftooth oval I have in my bin and swap out the deore rotors for lighter ones I already have. The end result is a really solid build. Other than the 250 gram frame penalty it is essentially the $8000 USA built Exie for a few thousand less.

As with you, I see no need for XTR on his bike or any of ours, we are a family full of XT. 100% of the performance with far better durability.
 
Get two sets of Aluminum wheels instead of one-set of Carbon.
So glad to see this from the likes of you. I admit, I've never ridden carbon wheels, so may be missing out and therefore woefully under-geared, but I don't get the expense. My aluminum wheels have always been fine.
 
The bike cost discussion always cracks me up. Do some over spend? Definitely. The kids that have parents that also ride/race are more willing to buy higher priced bikes and sometimes they are just mom/dad's old race bike. A quality budget FS carbon frame bike is 4k+ especially these last two years, things are finally changing and deals are surfacing again. My son's Epic Evo with shimano deore was nearly 4k in Jan 2021. My daughter's Juliana with Sram NX was 4,500 in April 2022. (My kids paid a good chunk of the cost with their own money raised from fair projects). Fast kids will still be fast no matter what bikes they're on. I see that with our own team whenever one of our hotshots has to ride a team bike (budget hardtail) when their bike is in the shop. If they are podium contenders... a high end bike could make a small difference, but their individual skill/fitness combined with a reliable bike is still the major contributing factor.
 
The bike cost discussion always cracks me up. Do some over spend? Definitely. The kids that have parents that also ride/race are more willing to buy higher priced bikes and sometimes they are just mom/dad's old race bike. A quality budget FS carbon frame bike is 4k+ especially these last two years, things are finally changing and deals are surfacing again. My son's Epic Evo with shimano deore was nearly 4k in Jan 2021. My daughter's Juliana with Sram NX was 4,500 in April 2022. (My kids paid a good chunk of the cost with their own money raised from fair projects). Fast kids will still be fast no matter what bikes they're on. I see that with our own team whenever one of our hotshots has to ride a team bike (budget hardtail) when their bike is in the shop. If they are podium contenders... a high end bike could make a small difference, but their individual skill/fitness combined with a reliable bike is still the major contributing factor.
When compared to other gear sports, mountain biking has a low gear effect. A high end bike might move someone up 2-positions but it isn't going to move them from mid-pack to front. Compare it to something like XC skiing where the gear effect (the right skis with the right wax for the snow) is absolutely massive.
 
I agree a fast rider is going to be fast on whatever. I don't have enough innate skill to conserve speed in twists and curves, where someone who does can keep pulling away from me while not even pedaling their bike. It doesn't matter what bikes we're on, I'll still suck free speed on mine and they'll save all that energy and smoke me in the long run. So, is a high dollar bike necessary because you compete at a high level, or is it some other percieved need that makes you have to have a high dollar bike?

A race weapon might weigh 3 pounds less than a bike that cost 3000 less, but rider weight can vary by 10, 20, 30 pounds or more, so it's not just about weight.

I had a friend years ago... Anything two people had, he always had to point out his was "better", mostly because it cost more. Sure, design and materials go into the higher cost, but how much real difference is there between a rock solid performer like Deore and bling like XTR? Stack all the differences in ability from part to part next to each other and when two bikes of similar geometry and travel are side by side, there is very little gained in function but a massive difference in cost.

It's my experience anything in life that costs money can be had for less when it's perfectly good enough, while having the top tier stuff is mostly so people can feel good about having it.

When you're at a trailhead and you see the bikes people have on their hitch racks... You see one... you see the brand name on the frame and you see the fork and shock have Kashima. Boom. You know that's at least the 8000 dollar model. Does that coating make the bike faster, or more able to negotiate a rock garden? I've got a bike with a near new Kashima Fox 34 on it, new XT, and a high dollar Industry Nine wheelset. The whole bike cost me 1400 dollars.

Like Forrest Gump's mama said... A man only needs so much money. The rest is for showing off.
 
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