Mountain Bike Reviews Forum banner

1 - 16 of 16 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,273 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I see so many posts on places like Craigs List in the SF Bay Area for someone who has had a bike stolen.
It makes me wonder what these people are smoking prior to "locking up" their bike while they go about their business, be it going to a movie, or going shopping.

So I am guessing if you have a bike which cost $1,500 new and is still worth about $1,000 even used....that even if you put the very best lock(s) on it, that the chance of it getting stolen is over 1% for every hour you leave it out in public.

Don't the owners of these bikes ever do statistical analysis and realize that on average the cost to lock and leave that bike is 1% x $1,000, per hour...or $10 per hour to park that bike. I doubt any of them would pay $10 per hour to park their bike.

Actually I think the rate of theft is higher than 1% per hour for a nice bike.
If someone breaks into your house and steals your bike, there isn't much you can do, but when you leave it unattended on a regular basis, even for 10 minutes, you better expect it to be stolen eventually.
Yet everyone is stunned and pissed off when it happens....

So for a bike with a value of $1,000 what it the expected probability of bike theft per hour left locked and unattended.? I say a minimum of 1% per hour....probably more like 5% per hour. ....
For a $100 bike I'd say about .5% per hour in a average urban setting.

Any ideas on this?
 

·
Perpetually single track
Joined
·
3,175 Posts
Let me guess....you're still in school, getting a BS degree of some type and just took a statistical analysis class?
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
7,131 Posts
what we need to do is test the probability (not calculate) of a bike being stolen that looks like a 1000 dollar bike because we built it with our old used POS components, and then test the probability of the genitalia being blown off because we packed it with C4 and wired a blasting cap to a lead on the fork and wheel that created a circut after it was moved 2 feet.
 

·
Fart smeller
Paid to post this crap.
Joined
·
18,779 Posts
Ahhh.

Jm. said:
what we need to do is test the probability (not calculate) of a bike being stolen that looks like a 1000 dollar bike because we built it with our old used POS components, and then test the probability of the genitalia being blown off because we packed it with C4 and wired a blasting cap to a lead on the fork and wheel that created a circut after it was moved 2 feet.
Puppetmaster Cheney would no doubt approve of your idea.

fp
 

·
Dain Bramaged
Joined
·
300 Posts
Completely OT

Jm. said:
what we need to do is test the probability (not calculate) of a bike being stolen that looks like a 1000 dollar bike because we built it with our old used POS components, and then test the probability of the genitalia being blown off because we packed it with C4 and wired a blasting cap to a lead on the fork and wheel that created a circut after it was moved 2 feet.
Besides the fact that the original post hurts my head, I actually laughed out loud at your reponse. Reminds me of an answering machine message an electronics engineer friend had once-

[riiiing....]
*click*
"You have reached Kevin's place, however we are unable to answer the phone right now. Before you hang up without leaving a message, we feel it necessary to inform you that we have a nice little kitty (insert sound of plaintive mewing) hooked up to a moderate charge on an electrical circuit. Should you choose to hang up without leaving a message, you will close the circuit and give poor kitty a shock (insert sound of massive electrical chaos - picture an electric chair and frying sounds). So it's up to you - live kitty (mew)? Or dead kitty (sizzling)? Thanks and have a great day"

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,273 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Well, I guess I'm just strange.....

ibmkidIII said:
Let me guess....you're still in school, getting a BS degree of some type and just took a statistical analysis class?
Hmm.....Now you have me worried.....since my last "stat" course was over 30 years ago...
On the other hand, you were correct in that at that time I did get a BS degree..
Still very good at BS

I think I think a bit too much about everything in terms of numbers and probabilities.
When I was younger, at dances, I would always do a statistical analysis of the probability of getting turned down when asking a girl to dance.......but then I figured out for every one I asked and got to dance with, there was also a given probability that I might end up in bed with them some hours or days in the future. Hence I would try to ask loads of girls to dance, knowing it was just a numbers game. So many numbers in yields so many numbers out at the other end. That statistical analysis served me well

Another example.... Just today I purchased a lottery ticket.....The jackpot is 45 million for the Saturday draw. Now even with a high jackpot my statistical payout is still less than one to one.....but that is not what I was thinking about.
NO, I was thinking that if I actually looked down after hearing the winning numbers and saw that those were the numbers on my ticket, I would still have a problem to consider.

1...The odds of my seeing those numbers on my ticket but the reality being that they were not there, but rather that I was just hallucinating the numbers as being there, is probably higher than the probability that the numbers are actually on my ticket.
So I'd still be uncertain if I had really won or if I had just gone crazy and was having mental distortions.

#2....Also after buying the ticket and thinking about all the money I might win, I am always very aware that the probability that I'll be killed in a car crash on my way home is far greater than the probability that I'll survive AND also have the winning numbers. So I worry all the way home, fearful of other cars crashing into me.

I guess thats why I never leave my bike unattended anywhere any time. Locks are a fool's insurance policy.
 

·
user-created
Joined
·
3,174 Posts
You live in the wrong city.

My "townie" cost me a $1200, and I lock it up with a $15 cable. Hasn't been stolen yet.

But yeah, I do have insurance.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
218 Posts
ibmkidIII said:
Let me guess....you're still in school, getting a BS degree of some type and just took a statistical analysis class?
And next year you'll be taking advanced economics wondering why you even like to bike.


Do you like apples? I got her phuckin number how do you like dem apples?



OH wrong forum sorry
 

·
Perpetually single track
Joined
·
3,175 Posts
Geezus man, you do think to much. Your first post hurt a few of my brain cell's no big deal, but the second....woah!! My suggestion, read FP's recent post and start drinking heavily. From my - ahem - limited personal experience, this stuff they call alcohol really limits thinking. :D
 

·
(enter witty phrase here)
Joined
·
2,250 Posts
Chester said:
Don't the owners of these bikes ever do statistical analysis and realize that on average the cost to lock and leave that bike is 1% x $1,000, per hour...or $10 per hour to park that bike. I doubt any of them would pay $10 per hour to park their bike.
statistical analysis? lmao Most people don't even know what that means, let alone performing one. Are you this anal retentive with everything in life?

Anyone ever do a statistical analysis to determine if you bought ten $150 bikes, instead of one $1500 bike, would you even need to buy a bike lock?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
227 Posts
let me guess the probability

Chester said:
Hmm.....Now you have me worried.....since my last "stat" course was over 30 years ago...
On the other hand, you were correct in that at that time I did get a BS degree..
Still very good at BS

I think I think a bit too much about everything in terms of numbers and probabilities.
When I was younger, at dances, I would always do a statistical analysis of the probability of getting turned down when asking a girl to dance.......but then I figured out for every one I asked and got to dance with, there was also a given probability that I might end up in bed

that you probably never got laid at those dances.....100%.

:)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,273 Posts
Discussion Starter · #12 ·
LOL.....don't tell the guys.....

Philo Beddoe said:
Chester said:
Hmm.....Now you have me worried.....since my last "stat" course was over 30 years ago...
On the other hand, you were correct in that at that time I did get a BS degree..
Still very good at BS

I think I think a bit too much about everything in terms of numbers and probabilities.
When I was younger, at dances, I would always do a statistical analysis of the probability of getting turned down when asking a girl to dance.......but then I figured out for every one I asked and got to dance with, there was also a given probability that I might end up in bed

that you probably never got laid at those dances.....100%.

:)
Well, actually when the theory began to be first put into practice, I was still in high school in the mid to later 60's, and despite what you hear about the wild "Sixties", the wild part did not really get into full swing until about 1969.......so those of us going to high school dances were not eactly scoring on a regular basis......actually from carefull analysis, almost no one was scoring.......If you know what I mean....
Now having said that, I did in fact follow the general probability theory into the 70's and it is valid...

But you are correct......at high school dances in the 65-67 years, the only place 99% of the guys were going all the way was in their locker room talk...
Morals, pills, cultural revolutions and traditions, changed everything in the 5 to 10 years that followed.
All in all the probability theory of meeting women is still very valid and should be followed by most males who miss out on 9 out of 10 possibilities...
However random physical encounters in these days of incurable diseases is not the same trivial matter it was when everything could be cured except a hangover.

Now I just estimate the probability that my dance partners will have their own teeth
Hate it in the morning, when they don't.
 

·
ceteris paribus
Joined
·
593 Posts
In the end it all comes down to supply and demand, and how you can tweak it with a little marketing.

Grab a cheap $500 bike, put the right decals on it and a regular fork, FS, and you just made it much more desirable for theft (demand grows).

On the other hand, grab a $2400 dollar bike(say, a Cdale F2000), put duct tape covering all of the paint and decals, and you've got your self a much less desireable bike. If you add a headshock fork to the equation (that looks like a rigid fork, to the untrained eye), you make the bike very undesireable for theft.

So what determines the probability of a bike getting stolen per hour, is more the way the bike looks, than the actual cost of the bike. Other factors to throw in the equation should be the geographical location (South Central, vs Bel Air...) time of day, and even time of the year (around here thiefs go crazy around christmas), as well as how frecuently the person leaves the bike at the given location (if he leaves it every monday from 5-8 pm, that's just being predictable)...

I'm into economics, so I it when things get a little more complicated.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
601 Posts
Chester said:
When I was younger, at dances, I would always do a statistical analysis of the probability of getting turned down when asking a girl to dance.......but then I figured out for every one I asked and got to dance with, there was also a given probability that I might end up in bed with them some hours or days in the future. Hence I would try to ask loads of girls to dance, knowing it was just a numbers game. So many numbers in yields so many numbers out at the other end. That statistical analysis served me well.
Chester said:
Now I just estimate the probability that my dance partners will have their own teeth
Hate it in the morning, when they don't.
LOL!!! I LOVE it!!!

I guess for your original question. When you reach 100% probability your bike is stolen, so a way to estimate probability would be to estimate after how many hours left unattended will the $1000 bike definitely get stolen.

If you take 1% per hour in the original estimate that means after 100 hours the bike would be gone (100% probability). Well say you ride to work and you're working for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week. Given 1% probability per hour your bike would get stolen after 2.5 weeks. If this sounds about right than your 1% per hour is spot on. So maybe to get actual probabilities someone can input how long they had their commuter before it got nicked?

As for those people that actually get their bike stolen maybe a big part of it is likely that they don't obsess over bikes to begin with (like anyone here does) and probably just see it as a tool. Maybe they started out by thinking about where they leave it and how they lock it up a little but after a while it gets cumbersome and you start substituting security for convenience, leaving it any place or during the night and then before you know it, it's gone. It's like boiling a frog to death gradually.

Anyway my 30 min TDF fix is starting...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,931 Posts
for the BS'ers

You never reach 100% probability. After 100 hours the chance that you still have your bike is .99 to the 100th power or 36.6%.
 
1 - 16 of 16 Posts
Top