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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
If any company uses the top quality frames, forks, tires, even saddles
out of Taiwan (as I do)
lead time this morning put Taiwan quality bikes out over 100 weeks!

meaning bikes ordered today, will ship around April 2023
landing in May 2023

since many companies introduce next years models in June
some bikes ordered this month could actually end up being called 2024 models
and will not be available to customers until summer of 2023

the entire situation is almost insane

treasure your bikes
 

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Yikes!!!

What's that mean for bikesdirect bikes scheduled for shipment this month? Are we looking at 6 months now? A year?
 

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GM needs to move their ventilator production over to bicycles, lol.

My local shops have a small amount of inventory. If I really believed there would be no bikes until 2023 or 2024, it would make sense to buy them now and flip them in a year or two. But I'm thinking the big shop brands have the most muscle with suppliers and they are getting their needs taken care of best.

Here is my prediction: in Spring of 2022, it won't be hard for buyers to find a bike for sale new at their price level. I think new bike prices will be higher in 2022 than 2021. But there will be lots more used bikes on the market.
 

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Right now, bikesonline says I can pre-order a Siskiu T8 in Large and it will ship from California at the end of May 2021. Maybe that's wishful thinking from them, I don't know.
 

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Yet some shops seem to be doing fine on inventory, or at least advertise as though they are.
 

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Yet some shops seem to be doing fine on inventory, or at least advertise as though they are.
this may or may not be accurate... I scoured the LBSs in SLC and they were pretty much sold out of everything and said if they ordered it it would be a year or more. some brands even longer. Used market is HOT as well. not much avail except very big, small and expensive. I found and bought a used bike from NY about a month ago - could think of waiting a year or two for a new one.

Shops out of state had a couple in my size but cant/wont ship due to seller agreements. but some who claimed to have stock - when pressed admitted they have nothing.

Its super ridiculous. Hopefully some semblance of normalcy will return to the retail markets soon.
 

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So, a few things happening here, both coupled to the constrained manufacturing of components. Broad stroke, component manufacturing is maxed out. The component companies have literally hit the wall with capacity to fulfill, and without adding additional mass manufacturing (in itself a multi year process) simply can't provide more widgets than they are already pumping out.

Full Bike orders are up this year (for bikes currently being sold, thus ordered last year), which the component manufacturers were able to confirm at the time. So, while delays and last minute component swaps are anticipated, the ability to acquire a full bike is doable. The ability to acquire a specific bike, with a specific set of components, is much more dubious. finding a 150mm travel trail bike? Yes, doable. Finding the <insert brand> trail bike, in the size of your choice, will be where the trouble comes in.

The real difficulty is that by committing the components to the new bikes, it will affect how much there is left over for simple component sales. The bigger message I am getting from my shop is that they anticipate running out of the ability to do certain tunes and part replacements for really basic stuff at some point during the year. Like chains, or tires, for example.

One of the more eye opening numbers I heard was that a large manufacturer known for their brakes showing up on mid-level bikes manufacturing lead times. Parts you would find on the common bike that people get into as their first ride. Historically the lead time for a manufacturing order was 90 days, pretty consistent. So if a manufacturer was setting up their new line of bikes, or shops/wholesalers were ordering for the next season, the sequencing for getting product on the showroom was pretty well known. That same company lead-time for brakes now? 478 days.

So yes, 2023 before the part demand allows for a shift back to normal, 2024 for that to be felt in the market.
 

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I'm seeing mountain bikes in all sort of TV commercials this year and just heard a news story on the radio about the big bike shortage. It seems that nearly everyone is trying to get a bike these days. This looks very much like a bubble that will deflate at some point.

When the bubble finally bursts, it could cause a lot of pain for bike companies.
 

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I tried to buy a Salsa TJ, Surly ICT, Surly Krampus and was told by multiple LBS that they were back ordered until spring of next year and that if I did not order now, pay in full, I would not be able to get one until 2023. Bought a Ragley Big Wig Race last night and it was the last one.
 

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Off Topic: Real estate is a crazy market right now. Homes are selling in my area for 110-140% of list price in 3-5 days and without inspections/contingencies/riders. There are panicked home buyers making cash offers on homes they haven't even walked through---just the photos on Zillow.

...but with the interest rates right now, its so tempting to chase a new place or refinance the one you have.
 
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I'm seeing mountain bikes in all sort of TV commercials this year and just heard a news story on the radio about the big bike shortage. It seems that nearly everyone is trying to get a bike these days. This looks very much like a bubble that will deflate at some point.

When the bubble finally bursts, it could cause a lot of pain for bike companies.
Assuming you're right, what I wonder is will the manufacturers than lower prices when demand wanes and shipping costs go back down to normal? My guess is no. That will kill the industry.
 

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I tried to buy a Salsa TJ, Surly ICT, Surly Krampus and was told by multiple LBS that they were back ordered until spring of next year and that if I did not order now, pay in full, I would not be able to get one until 2023. Bought a Ragley Big Wig Race last night and it was the last one.
No way I'd give an LBS any serious money for a full year. Even the best of them just aren't exactly six sigma operating machines. Oops, forgot to order it and that type of crap happen all the time. I'm not anti-LBS. Just calling it like I've seen it.
 

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No way I'd give an LBS any serious money for a full year. Even the best of them just aren't exactly six sigma operating machines. Oops, forgot to order it and that type of crap happen all the time. I'm not anti-LBS. Just calling it like I've seen it.
Exactly 👍
 

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I'm seeing mountain bikes in all sort of TV commercials this year and just heard a news story on the radio about the big bike shortage. It seems that nearly everyone is trying to get a bike these days. This looks very much like a bubble that will deflate at some point.

When the bubble finally bursts, it could cause a lot of pain for bike companies.
Yup, I agree, it's definitely a bubble. Always repercusssions, but IF they plan smart it shouldn't be too bad for the bike/parts companies themselves. I foresee pain for the people who've bought bikes at inflated prices more than anything. Same with housing only a much larger financial hit...not sure what that'll do to the economy. :(
 

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Here in Houston it seems like if they didn't order it a while back and have what you want coming in you have to wait until at least next summer to get what you order. It forced me to buy whatever is available and have to settle somewhat. Also there are no deals, especially on mid range bikes (2-3k). They are just selling out. I thought I could get away with spending 3 maybe 4k. Ended spending over 5k. A year is a lot of valuable time for me and it just wasn't worth worrying about a bit better components or a bit more cash.
 
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