I think that as above if your power suffers then lighter may not be faster.
You could quantify this as power to weight ratio, if this increases as you loose the weight, then faster, if no then slower.
So, for me this explains why there is an optimal weight, for each person, not too light so they are losing muscle mass, not so heavy that they are gaining fat. (All that in proportion).
Measuring this, other than just doing it and finding out, would be by VO2 testing and various weights say every 1/4 of a year. (not for me).
I have been playing with a weigh scale that shows muscle mass, vs % body fat, I am sure it is very inaccurate, but it does seem to trend well, when I feel a little bit fatter it shows up as % body fat increase, and when I feel tired after a bonk, the muscle mass goes down a bit.
You might be able to make some use of this.