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Just want to rant about current prices. I haven't bought a complete bike in a long time, preferring to pick parts that work for me based durability and price (and maybe a little bling). I generally build up a new frame every couple of years. I won't even think about it right now, even though I kind of have the itch.
Four years ago I bought a complete set of Zee brakes for $140, front and rear, I think they came from Germany. 18 months ago I got a set of ungrouped shimano 4 piston brakes, I think they were a little more than that. Current prices seem outrageous. I can't imagine spending $500 on a set of brakes, no matter how great they are. Yes, I can afford them. Call me a conscientious objector.
Sorry about the rant. Here's hoping that things get better soon.
 

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@goyo46. While availability will gradually return to what it once was, I doubt prices are going to dip much.

The new pricing stadards have been set. I don't like it either, but it's here. I never thought I'd spend what I did on a new bike.

You can embrace it, or plan on riding older / used bikes.

@TheNatureBoy, I agree, the used bike market is hot. I was lucky as well.
 

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Be glad you aren't buying a Porsche! Or a Kia! Or one of many cars today. Porsche GT series 911's are commanding $50k to $100k "ADMs" which are "Additional Dealer Markups" over MSRP!

Crazy shortages creating crazy prices right now. So I consider myself lucky to first, have gotten two new Ibis bikes this summer, and second, not paying any markup!
 

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Perhaps it’s an opportunity for someone to swoop in and undercut on the prices and quality. I don’t need a flawless eagle cassette made from an ingot of rocket ship.

Local burger place pays $19/hr to start - 4 hrs work buy an 11 speed cassette.

When I was making $6/hr a good 7 speed cassette was $20, so at least pay has scaled fairly.

Maybe Weve all become grandfathers thinking a candy bar should cost a nickel.
 

· furker
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It is a double whammy. Supply/demand curve is pushing up prices, at the same time the dollar is worth less than it was worth before.

I want my 5 cent Chicken Dinner bar on a 6-figure salary.
 

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It would be great if this stimulates a domestic US/Canadian market for parts and frames. There does seem to be a little bit more action on North American-built frames. My understanding is that Shimano (and probably others) have made the determination that the parts shortage is temporary, demand will not stay at current levels, and it would be a mistake to invest in new production capacity. So there will be shortages for a couple of years maybe, and perhaps smaller players will be able to step into the void. I built up a (gravel/road) frameset that I bought in August 2020, but it took some doing, and I paid a bit more for some parts than I would have liked. I just installed a new 7 speed drivetrain, pretty low-end (Altus M310-level mostly) on someone's old 93 Hardrock commuter bike. Pretty much the same parts I put on an old Trek about three years ago. Maybe 30% more expensive now.
 

· BOOM goes the dynamite!
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My understanding is that Shimano (and probably others) have made the determination that the parts shortage is temporary, demand will not stay at current levels, and it would be a mistake to invest in new production capacity. So there will be shortages for a couple of years maybe, and perhaps smaller players will be able to step into the void.
Everyone selling something continually says prices will stay high, but that's not feasible long term. Shimano has already invested in increasing capacity to the tune of $300m (and probably others).
PB article about it.
 

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I for one am very unhappy about increasing prices - especially at the entry level. The entry level bikes are greatly effected by ocean freight costs going from $3000 a container to $21,000 a container. That’s $10 a bike vs $70 a bike. Entry bikes from Brands like trek, giant, gravity, fuji, diamondback, etc - have FOB of about $170 - think of an. Increase of $60 as what it is - about 30% increase in landed cost for that bike - and for that person thinking of entering cycling It rolls out to an extra 30% they may not want to spend or have available.
 

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If prices keep going up is that to maintain a profit margin or have an even bigger profit margin?

I suspect many will insist that it’s to keep the same profit margin. I am skeptical.
 

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If prices keep going up is that to maintain a profit margin or have an even bigger profit margin?

I suspect many will insist that it's to keep the same profit margin. I am skeptical.
A little of both maybe. Maintain the company's overall profit margin, but an increase on per bike profit due to fewer sales.
 

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So we see higher prices. In addition to my post in #11 and the following ones, is owning/repairing a expensive component bike going to be a luxury item, only for the financially well endowed?

Are the low end (box store) bikes gonna be a price attractive bike more than ever because of cost?
 

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It will take time, but prices will come back down to earth, but the path will not be pretty.

Now that things like the eviction ban, unemployment bonus and tax credits are coming to and end, money being pumped into the retail economy will start to shrink.

Once expendable income starts to shrink it will allow supply to start to catch up with demand.
 

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I am annoyed with the used bike prices in my area. I'm sorry but if I can buy a brand new hardtail for $1800 with similar components to the used hardtail you're selling, I'm not going to pay you $1700 for it. I'll just buy new and get the warranty.

But this is cyclical. Lots of people are trying to suggest that there won't be a supply glut after this inflated demand cycle. But human nature being what it is, there's almost no chance we don't end up with a supply glut and lots of close out discounts in a year or two.
 

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It will take time, but prices will come back down to earth, but the path will not be pretty.

Now that things like the eviction ban, unemployment bonus and tax credits are coming to and end, money being pumped into the retail economy will start to shrink.

Once expendable income starts to shrink it will allow supply to start to catch up with demand.
Yes. It's terrible. People will actually have to get jobs. The horror.

High end bike prices, even mid level, are determined what people are willing to pay. It's not R&D cost. It's not manufacturing cost. They are a veblen good. It basically comes down to keeping up with the Joneses. There is no rational reason why these rather simple things cost as much as a motorcycle. With lots of yuppie types thinking this is a trendy sport and road cycling now being viewed as too dangerous, I believe prices will stay high for a long long time.
 

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Everyone selling something continually says prices will stay high, but that's not feasible long term. Shimano has already invested in increasing capacity to the tune of $300m (and probably others).
PB article about it.
Thanks for correcting my statement--I hadn't seen the update on Shimano's investment. I wonder if "high end transmission" means eBike parts?
 
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