Mountain Bike Reviews Forum banner
1 - 20 of 256 Posts

· Registered
Joined
·
130 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Any insiders in the industry on this forum know how long this bike shortage is going to last?
So hard to buy a bike here in Australia at the moment. Bike shops everywhere have almost no stock.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
392 Posts
In my personal view, there are some games being played here for all kinds of products. Manufacturers and retailers see the panic and the narrative of shortages and are taking advantage. When they say you can't get a bike until 2023 or 2024 so you better pay and order now, I call BS. And it's not just me if you start reading about warehouse and transport crunches (not inventory product issues). My point is just think hard before you commit and pay full pop in advance.
 

· CEO Product Failure
Joined
·
2,463 Posts
How do you retailers plan to get through this glut of stock? I have several friends who own local shops and feel horrible for them.
Sounds like the glut (supply) will be sold before it arrives at the LBS.
 
  • Love
Reactions: Crankout

· CEO Product Failure
Joined
·
2,463 Posts
I think the definition of 'glut' has been misunderstood:

Nope. not by me. I believe the inventory arriving at any shop for the next 18+ months will be already sold. So low inventory (lack of supply) will not allow a glut for at least 2 yrs.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
7,470 Posts
I think the definition of 'glut' has been misunderstood:

Mutha fugga...yes, totally poor word choice! I mean really, shouldn't 'glut' be a negative term?

Let's go with 'dearth' please.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
1,660 Posts
In my personal view, there are some games being played here for all kinds of products. Manufacturers and retailers see the panic and the narrative of shortages and are taking advantage. When they say you can't get a bike until 2023 or 2024 so you better pay and order now, I call BS. And it's not just me if you start reading about warehouse and transport crunches (not inventory product issues). My point is just think hard before you commit and pay full pop in advance.
Your personal view doesn't match reality. To everyone else, if you want a particular bike at any point in the next 12-18 months, buy one as soon as you can find a confirmed delivery or can find one in stock. There are no games being played... just the games of supply chain failures, shipping nightmares, factory shutdowns and logistics problems. Supply is vastly out pacing demand, and supply side is constrained by just angle that could constrain it.
 

· BOOM goes the dynamite!
Joined
·
7,103 Posts
Your personal view doesn't match reality. To everyone else, if you want a particular bike at any point in the next 12-18 months, buy one as soon as you can find a confirmed delivery or can find one in stock. There are no games being played... just the games of supply chain failures, shipping nightmares, factory shutdowns and logistics problems. Supply is vastly out pacing demand, and supply side is constrained by just angle that could constrain it.
I need some toilet paper for this BS. There's a shortage of everything all the time! And anyone who says different must be a conspiracy nut.

They're even marketing using fear tactics now. From "in stock alerts" to the latest one I got today that made me literally laugh out loud said "SHOP TODAY! - Your Favorite Gear Might Be Gone Tomorrow". We'd better buy NOW and at FULL RETAIL and be happy about it or...oh, wait. No.

So far this year I've had no problems finding parts on sale for 50%+ off (the usual high retail/markdown strategy) including chains, tires, lights, brake pads, etc.

Too many suckers out there with free gov't money and while it's difficult to get things on time, things ARE slowly getting sorted. Just stop hoarding and it'll happen a whole lot sooner.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
392 Posts
I need some toilet paper for this BS. There's a shortage of everything all the time! And anyone who says different must be a conspiracy nut.

They're even marketing using fear tactics now. From "in stock alerts" to the latest one I got today that made me literally laugh out loud said "SHOP TODAY! - Your Favorite Gear Might Be Gone Tomorrow". We'd better buy NOW and at FULL RETAIL and be happy about it or...oh, wait. No.

So far this year I've had no problems finding parts on sale for 50%+ off (the usual high retail/markdown strategy) including chains, tires, lights, brake pads, etc.

Too many suckers out there with free gov't money and while it's difficult to get things on time, things ARE slowly getting sorted. Just stop hoarding and it'll happen a whole lot sooner.
You got it.

Lots of articles out there if one cares to look. Here's one:

 

· Registered
Joined
·
392 Posts
Your personal view doesn't match reality. To everyone else, if you want a particular bike at any point in the next 12-18 months, buy one as soon as you can find a confirmed delivery or can find one in stock. There are no games being played... just the games of supply chain failures, shipping nightmares, factory shutdowns and logistics problems. Supply is vastly out pacing demand, and supply side is constrained by just angle that could constrain it.
Yeah that's the narrative alright. Wait until Spring when magically it's all sorted.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
1,660 Posts
You got it.

Lots of articles out there if one cares to look. Here's one:

That article is about both my and my wife's industry. I can say that it's skewed quite a bit by leaving several factors out of the equation. this is about bike stuff, so I'm not going to go down a tanget for construction, logistics and real estate. That's what I do for a living and it's not interesting.... that being said, take note of the differences between the bike industry and others.

Yeah that's the narrative alright. Wait until Spring when magically it's all sorted.
It's very easy to wait for something that's not going to happen. There will be certain industries that have a chance of having things sorted out in a 2023 time frame. 2022 is out the window since there are too many straws breaking the camels back... but once we get a handful of the straws off, the rest should be easy to deal with going forward.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
1,660 Posts
I need some toilet paper for this BS. There's a shortage of everything all the time! And anyone who says different must be a conspiracy nut.

They're even marketing using fear tactics now. From "in stock alerts" to the latest one I got today that made me literally laugh out loud said "SHOP TODAY! - Your Favorite Gear Might Be Gone Tomorrow". We'd better buy NOW and at FULL RETAIL and be happy about it or...oh, wait. No.

So far this year I've had no problems finding parts on sale for 50%+ off (the usual high retail/markdown strategy) including chains, tires, lights, brake pads, etc.

Too many suckers out there with free gov't money and while it's difficult to get things on time, things ARE slowly getting sorted. Just stop hoarding and it'll happen a whole lot sooner.
this makes me realize that there are few different contextual perspectives being missed in our discussion. It's been a long while since i've been playing with stuff in this industry, that is discounted in any way shape or form. Everything I own is current, bleeding edge (frames, suspension, drivetrain, brakes etc). I'm also fortunate enough to live in a major area with one of the best bike shops in the country... so stock hasn't been a huge issue for me. However, I ride often with the purchaser of this group of shops.... If you had insider info on when the orders were placed for what's currently on the shelves, it would blow you away.

The bike industry is a bit of a special snowflake that has an example of a bit of all other industries all wrapped up in one;
-vastly increased demand and market segment
-fast product cycles with long r&d turn arounds compared to product life cycles
-global mfg is wide spread in this industry and thus, it is especially vulnerable to supply chain issues
-a downward trend pre-pandemic that was causing many retailers to be on the verge of going out of business, and behind on cashflow, ap and as a result, stock (cash was king when this all started, very few brick and mortars had cash or credit on hand when it would benefit them the most)
-tarifs that were affecting the industry and causing shifts in production locations and business strategies at exactly the wrong time for a spike in demand
-highly specialized manufacturing and tooling requirements that mean that ramping up production through new plants, is exceedingly difficult
-significant subcontracting and outsourcing, no one makes a whole product alone and requires the output of another business entirely
-highly dependent on pass through, middle man business models and logistics
 

· Registered
Joined
·
1,705 Posts
Human nature is such that when there's a shortage, people act like it will last forever, and order more and more. Until finally there isn't a shortage, and you have all this stuff you ordered and no longer need. Then there will be a glut.

Dunno if it will be 2022 or 2023, but sooner or later, human nature being what it is, there will be a supply glut. I'm personally thinking it's going to be sooner rather than later because the supply situation is unlikely to be resolved when people expect, and sometimes these seemingly insurmountable problems work themselves out pretty quickly in a free economy.
 

· Registered
Joined
·
27 Posts
Human nature is such that when there's a shortage, people act like it will last forever, and order more and more. Until finally there isn't a shortage, and you have all this stuff you ordered and no longer need. Then there will be a glut.

Dunno if it will be 2022 or 2023, but sooner or later, human nature being what it is, there will be a supply glut. I'm personally thinking it's going to be sooner rather than later because the supply situation is unlikely to be resolved when people expect, and sometimes these seemingly insurmountable problems work themselves out pretty quickly in a free economy.
For toilet paper and gas sure, I doubt there are a lot of people buy more bikes than they need just because they can, maybe some components. There have been shortages of everything I am interesting in both personally and professionally, it's definitely not just bikes.
 
1 - 20 of 256 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top