[Cleared2land]

Well, if this doesn't set the stage for a return to normalcy for the bike industry.

by BRAIN Staff - Published February 8, 2021


(BRAIN) — A C-student in whatever class comes before Economics 101 could predict price increases in the industry in 2020, given the imbalance between supply and demand. And 2021 will likely see retail prices go up another 10-25%, experts say.

Through last September the average retail price of bike products was up 22%, compared to the same period in 2019, according to NPD Group.

2021 will likely see retail prices go up another 10-25%, experts say.

Here's the details

A 25% increase in a high-end mountain bike is no small chunk of change.

 

[dysfunction]

So, don't buy any. Demand goes down, supply goes up, prices drop to readjust.

 

[J.B. Weld]

So, don't buy any. Demand goes down, supply goes up, prices drop to readjust.

Man, if only I controlled the entire market that would be great!

 

[dysfunction]

Man, if only I controlled the entire market that would be great!

There's really nothing more we can do but gripe about it, which won't have any affect anyway.

 

[Cleared2land]

Yepper, our whimpering about the situation will do zip.

 

[Connor Burden]

so what im taking from this thread is that i suck at business and bikes are expensive. noted

 

[kapusta]

Here's hoping that in a couple years when supply is back up and people start selling their COVID bikes, the market will move the other way.

 

[ghettocruiser]

If this is all true, it should continue to be a good time to unload all your used bikes and parts as well.

 

[toadmeister]

In addition to basic supply and demand, the rate of inflation will also drive up prices.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Harold]

What it's going to do is that it'll press at least a few manufacturers to try to reduce costs. Expect to see more SRAM SX stuff in the short term. Expect to see manufacturers looking for a cheaper place to make bikes and parts, too. That's a longer term effect, but it'll happen.

Where will they go? Who knows? With shipping costs having jumped as much as they have, I have a feeling we might see the industry restructure a bit to minimize long distance transportation as much as possible.

I bet it'll also come along with stagnation of development of new products at the absolute top end, and more product development at lower price points. Innovations at improving efficiency on production lines?

I'm glad I've got a good bike that makes me happy right now, that's for sure.

 

[dysfunction]

I'm not sure the shipping costs have gotten to the point to offset labor costs. I suspect, they'll look for the next cheapest place, labor wise, like businesses are want to do. It'd be interesting to see it work back up the cost food chain.

I'd like a new full squish, but about all I need for that is a fork and a frame. I can swap wheel sets around, and just took apart a bike.

 

[Harold]

I'm not sure the shipping costs have gotten to the point to offset labor costs. I suspect, they'll look for the next cheapest place, labor wise, like businesses are want to do. It'd be interesting to see it work back up the cost food chain.

I mean that's one of the big questions, isn't it?

We already had a trend that China's workers have been getting more skilled and getting better pay for building bicycles, and some manufacturers have already moved production to other countries in southeast Asia with even cheaper labor costs. No doubt other companies will leave China, too, and that particular trend will continue. But I also see it likely that some compan(y/ies) will move production from Asia to the Americas (not just the USA) because they run the numbers a little bit differently for their own purposes.

We're already seeing a bit of onshoring of certain things. My city is getting a medical PPE factory this year to address gaps in the supply chain, since most of the medical PPE has been coming from overseas.

 

[Sparticus]

I have 3 bikes plus one frame/crank/rear wheel for sale. I should say I have these “available” rather than “for sale” since I’m holding off listing them until winter’s over. Anyway, there are bikes out there to be had. And hopefully once they’re listed someone willing to spend some cash will step up to claim one or all of them.
=sParty

 

[phantoj]

Here's hoping that in a couple years when supply is back up and people start selling their COVID bikes, the market will move the other way.

that's when the runaway hyperinflation will kick in

 

[SingleSpeedSteven]

I hope bikes keep getting more expensive. I am looking forward to the day that I can quit my job and just start flipping bicycles, in the same way that people flip houses and cars.

 

[Harold]

I hope bikes keep getting more expensive. I am looking forward to the day that I can quit my job and just start flipping bicycles, in the same way that people flip houses and cars.

I knew a guy who did that for his "retirement" job. He'd hunt down old Italian road bikes across the midwest. Especially the ones in barns and junk shops, where ppl didn't know what they had. He'd take 'em home, fix 'em up with period correct Campy and other Italian parts (which he also hunted for), and resell them on ebay mostly.

 

[SingleSpeedSteven]

I knew a guy who did that for his "retirement" job. He'd hunt down old Italian road bikes across the midwest. Especially the ones in barns and junk shops, where ppl didn't know what they had. He'd take 'em home, fix 'em up with period correct Campy and other Italian parts (which he also hunted for), and resell them on ebay mostly.

That's really cool. I was hoping to go more the "buy a Specialized Enduro with a bent derailleur hanger and fix it while making 500% profit" route though. A guy can dream.

 

[alexdi]

It's hard to flip mountain bikes. Most of what's available used is ancient. No one maintains them and they're beat on by design. Lots of hydraulic parts, many of which were unreliable new, unavailable now, and haven't improved with age. And with all that, the buying market is thin above $1K. Road bikes, sure, you can make a business there. Mountain bikes, no thanks.

 

[phantoj]

Some of those old mountain bikes are starting to become collector's items.

Old components, anodized CNCed stuff, weirdo linkage forks -- these are beginning to command higher prices.

 

[alexdi]

They are. I've got a Girvin sitting in the garage that'll be on EBay soon enough. But the interesting ones are few and far between. Not enough of them to build a business around, and the vintage market heavily values a level of condition that's even more rare.